Thursday, May 28, 2020

Global carbon emissions reduced by 17 percent due to Covid 19 crisis.

Global carbon emissions reduced by 17 percent due to Covid 19 crisis.

The COVID-19 global lockdown has had an "extreme" effect on daily carbon emissions, but it is unlikely to last according to a new analysis by a  team of scientists. Government policies during Covid-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world.Due to lockdown imposed by Government populations were confined to their homes, which reduced movement of vehicles. Also, most ofindustries were closed in lockdown period, thereby reducing carbon emmissions. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by 17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. The six economic sectors covered in this analysis are: (1) power (44.3% of global fossil CO2 emissions), (2) industry (22.4%), (3) surface transport (20.6%), (4) public buildings and commerce (4.2%), (5) residential (5.6%) and (6) aviation (2.8% ).

The team analysed government policies on confinement for 69 countries responsible for 97% of global CO2 emissions. At the peak of the confinement, regions responsible for 89% of global CO2 emissions were under some level of restriction. Data on activities indicative of how much each economic sector was affected by the pandemic was then used to estimate the change in fossil CO2 emissions for each day and country from January to April 2020.

The estimated total change in emissions from the pandemic amounts to 1048 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) until the end of April. Of this, the changes are largest in China where the confinement started, with a decrease of 242 MtCO2, then in the US (207 MtCO2), Europe (123 MtCO2), and India (98 MtCO2). The total change in the UK for January-April 2020 is an estimated 18 MtCO2.

The impact of confinement on 2020 annual emissions is projected to be around 4% to 7% compared to 2019, depending on the duration of the lockdown and the extent of the recovery. If pre-pandemic conditions of mobility and economic activity return by mid-June, the decline would be around 4%. If some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of the year, it would be around 7%.

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